Betting March Madness

Betting March Madness

It is the time of the year when the casual player emerges from the woodwork but like the rest of the year, only the Wise Guys and the bookmakers surface with extra change. As many of our articles have reminded gamblers, so often going against the conventional logic is the way to win while the sucker money subsidizes our spoils. In many cases for example what won us money during the regular season will do so in March, but many new angles are additionally there for the money grubbing. Pit the Selection Committee Against Roxy and Company Excluding the ninth seed laying points to the eighth seed, we still love going with lower seeded favorites to higher seeded teams. That being said with the caveat of excluding the four-abovementioned games in which the seedings could have been flip-flopped anyway, there have been tournaments where this does not apply. But we will more than happily put our money on the linesmakers exploiting false higher seeds. Emotion in Short Run, Talent in the Long Run When betting half-time lines we have a rare case of what appears too apparent to actually be true. But the public’s infatuation with betting the big chalk has prevented this from being a cash cow for the average Joe. Going with the number 16 seed in the first half has definitely gotten my associates and I some nice spare change over the years. Before making a final decision, I scout the game on the dish, but very often I will then bet the top seed in the second half. For the most part, the bottom seeds have guys playing in the biggest game of their lives bar none. The seniors on the team are in many cases playing in their final game of organized ball at any level. Others have the ultimate showcase for the scouts of the foreign leagues. Finally there is not one guy on the lower seeded teams that have not dreamt of starring in college hoops version of Lake Placid or becoming part of the biggest upset in Big Dance history. All those intangibles for about 20 minutes usually do go a long way to compensating for the talent deficiency. But over 40 minutes having infinitely more talent and depth mean, as Dick Vitale would say “Blowout City baby” in the second half. Plus if the bottom seed makes the game look interesting for a while, it serves to wake up the top seed at halftime. The second half represents an epiphany for the team that spent the first 20 minutes more concerned with playing two days later. Then the to-be-anticipated bubble-burst happens. Once the faster, stronger deeper top seed goes on that inevitable 10-0 burst all the delusions of grandeur come crashing down on Squid State. The emotional roller coaster makes its descent. We cash in with the sixteen side in the first half and the huge chalk in the second. Beware of the “Guards Dominate” Trap I hear it all the time that “It’s a guard dominated game”. Then a conclusion to the effect, “Handicap the guards first” generally follows. This conviction is not so much a myth as it is a matter of inductive rather than deductive reasoning. The simple fact is that there are a lot more guards out there than there are centers so just based on pure numbers there will be more guard-oriented teams that advance. Of course there will be more guard-oriented teams whose bubble bursts too come selection time. In fact look at the bottom of each conference and you will find a lot of guard-oriented teams. If truth be told, the teams that have the big men are the teams that will have biggest mismatches-literally and figuratively. However again, the guard-oriented lovers are not falling into a classic go-against trap completely. In point of fact, smart players handicap teams in their totality. Sure teams that have great three-point shooters are the best “shot in the dark” teams on the money line, but conversely if they go cold can also be great to go against in “pleasers”. They are high risk/high return, but there are high return/low risk options too. Don’t Fall in Love With Seniors It is a simple syllogism: teams with the best players win, the best players with few exceptions do not stay until their senior year, thus the best teams are not senior laden. This indisputable truth is becoming more so every year. I will take the team with talent over the team with experience. In fact I would be leery of senior-laden favorites over a young team with a bigger upside and nothing to lose. Conversely by no means do I suggest always betting against the more seasoned team. If you are talking about a team that is about a ten-point dog (that is a team that is not completely overmatched but getting a decent number of points) there is sufficient reason to bet them to cover, though not blindly. The hypotheses of playing in one’s last game in organized ball and showcasing for the European scouts can inspire a competitive team to claw to the end, but I would much rather invest in a team like Arizona, short on postseason familiarity but high on ability. Fade the Chic Teams One of the first questions that the so-called “experts” take on after the pairings are announced is “Who will the dark horse teams be”. So often Billy Packer on one network, Dick Vitale on another, the USA Today on Monday and so many media hacks and talking heads pick the same team. One year they all love Eastern Michigan, the next Princeton. Dark horse teams have the element of surprise and the “no respect” motivational factor. Once all the regurgitating paparazzi make up its mind what the flavor of the month is for March, they are no longer dark horses now are they? Not only is there no element of surprise, but also what better way to insure his higher-seeded team does not overlook their opponent then to point out that the media has labeled their foe as one of the potential Cinderella teams? In fact, sight and opponent unseen I would not be surprised if Gonzaga the three-time bearer of the glass slipper now becomes an early causality because for the first time they face the burden of high expectation. Do Not Talk Yourself Into Betting Every Game I do realize there are casual gamblers who do bet, as I like to call it “lunch money” on games. As long as they are risking mere entertainment money to insure that a game is interesting to them, it is harmless. And there is always a book happy to help out. However when it comes to betting from ones bankroll, do not feel that you have to bet whatever game is being televised in your area. Get DirecTV or go to a sports bar to watch the good investments. Do not check the morning sports page to see what is on your local channel and convince yourself it is one of the strongest games on the board. Plus if you choose the sports bar option, you may get Final Four caliber waitress. Just do not let the wife know. Joe Duffy of GodsTips.com is the Lord of the Dance in March Madness Betting. He is the CEO of www.OffshoreInsiders.com Joe Duffy of GodsTips, anchor of www.OffshoreInsiders.com has written two articles considered Gospel to sports bettors. “The Most Important Article Ever Written About Sports Betting” is a must-read before betting and another tome about the, “10 Biggest Myths and Mistakes By Sports Bettors” has saved many gambler from falling into common sports gambling traps.

Posted: 2008-03-17   By: Joe Duffy

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